Brazil’s P.1 Variant Ravaging All of South America; Desperation Prevails
April 5 (EIRNS)–The rate at which Brazil’s P.1 or “Manaus” variant has spread to the rest of South America has rightly earned it the term “superspreader.” As The Washington Post reports today, the fear now is that P.1 could become the dominant variant in all of South America, given the fact that all but two countries on the continent border Brazil and that there is fluid two-way traffic across those borders. With good reason, several countries have either closed their borders with Brazil or are about to. But keeping the virus out of their countries is another matter.
The rapidity with which the variant has spread into nations whose healthcare systems border on collapse and whose economies have suffered severe declines because of the pandemic, is a cause of despair among healthcare professionals in those nations. As Venezuelan infectious disease specialist Julio Castro put it, “it’s spreading. It’s impossible to stop.” In Peru, 40% of all cases are being attributed to P.1, although in some parts of Lima, the capital, it’s 70%. In Uruguay it’s 30%. In Paraguay, half of the cases at the border with Brazil are due to P.1.
The situation in Paraguay is so dire that the head of the country’s Infectious Disease Society, Elena Candia Florentin, told the Post that “Paraguay has little chance of stopping the spread of the P.1 variant,” because it has nothing with which to combat it. “With the medical system collapsed, medications and supplies chronically depleted, early detection deficient, contact tracing nonexistent, waiting patients begging for treatment on social media, insufficient vaccinations for health workers, and uncertainty over when general and vulnerable populations will be vaccinated, the outlook in Paraguay is dark,” she said. In Paraguay, as in most other countries, expanding poverty, mistrust, and generalized “Covid exhaustion,” make stricter public health measures an unlikely option.
Vaccines are the obvious solution, but lack of accessibility and slowness of distribution have greatly hindered vaccination efforts in most countries, with the exception of Chile.
The region is one of the hardest hit in the world, but has administered only 6% of the world’s vaccines. The UN’s COVAX mechanism is kicking in, but very slowly, and in most cases, every country is left to its own devices. There is no regional bloc, as is the case in Africa, capable of negotiating for a group of countries.
Sept. 29 (EIRNS) – The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) and other industry groups representing 65 million transport workers globally today issued a public letter addressed to the heads of state gathered at the United Nations General Assembly, in which they warned of a “global transport system collapse” if governments do not restore freedom of movement to transport workers and give them priority to receive vaccines. “Global supply chains are beginning to buckle as two years’ worth of strain on transport workers take their toll,” the groups wrote. “All transport sectors are also seeing a shortage of workers, and expect more to leave as a result of the poor treatment millions have faced during the pandemic, putting the supply chain under greater threat,” it added.
The other signers include the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the International Road Transport Union (IRU) and the International Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF).
The U.S., like other countries, is already suffering significant shortages and inflation, as a result of the sharp inflation of energy prices, in part due to the Green de-carbonization agenda, along with industrial closings. This is expected to worsen sharply between now and year-end. CBS TV’s Oakland affiliate reported: “Retailers are sounding the alarm on the upcoming holiday shopping season due to serious supply chain issues that are slowing shipments of manufactured goods around the world.” They quote John Drake, VP of Supply Chain Strategy for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce: “There are not the people in place to move the containers and the chassis where they need to go. So you’ve got a lot of stuff piling up at the ports and at the warehouses. When that happens, the harder it is to get the stuff that is ready to move.” The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are particularly backed up.
Ingenuity Helicopter Successfully Dropped to Mars Surface by Perseverance Rover; Will Fly 4/11
April 5 (EIRNS)–NASA was proud to announce that late on Saturday, April 3, the Perseverance rover successfully dropped the small helicopter Ingenuity four inches down to the surface of Mars where it will remain until April 11 when it is expected to take its first flight. The four-pound, solar-powered helicopter, had been attached to Perseverance’s “belly,” where it was kept warm by the rover’s nuclear-powered system, space.com reported April 4. Now that it is detached from Perseverance, the helicopter is using its internal battery to power its heater, to keep it warm through the frigid Martian nights. Bob Balaram, NASA’s chief engineer for the Mars Helicopter project, explained that the heater will protect key components “such as the battery and some of the sensitive electronics from harm at very cold temperatures.”
Ingenuity is designed to test technologies for future flying vehicles on other planets; it carries two cameras to document its flights, which the Perseverance rover will also observe. The data from its first flight on April 11 will reach NASA on April 12. Provided all goes well, Ingenuity will then perform several longer flights over Jezero Crater (where Perseverance landed) over the next 31 Martian days. Space.com reports that each flight should reach no higher than 16.5 feet, and will be conducted over a 300-foot-long (90 m) flight range.
Dr. Osterholm: Coronavirus Has a “Category 5 Hurricane Status” Globally
April 5 (EIRNS)–Speaking on Fox News Sunday and Meet the Press April 4, epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, an adviser to President Biden on the COVID-19 pandemic, made the obvious point in terms of the global nature of the coronavirus pandemic and warned that people had better pay attention. Overall, he said, “we’re in a category 5 hurricane status with regard to the rest of the world. We’ll see in the next two weeks the highest number of cases reported globally, since the beginning of the pandemic. As for the United States, we’re just at the beginning of the surge.” Osterholm, who runs the Minnesota-based Center for Infectious Disease and Research Policy (CIDRAP), said he agreed with the remarks made last week by Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), to the effect that the situation in the United States was not at all under control–she reported she felt a sense of “impending doom”–adding that Americans weren’t being realistic about the spike in new cases nationwide. Moreover, he warned, that spike was being driven by the COVID variant B.1.1.7, the British strain.
Dr. Osterholm elaborated: “We are the only country in the world right now experiencing this increasing number of cases due to this variant, and at the same time opening up, not closing down. The two basically are going to collide, and we are going to see substantially increased numbers of cases.” He especially warned that the variant is now hitting children much harder than previous strains. “It infects kids very readily.” More broadly, he pointed to reports of surging cases around the country, especially in the Upper Midwest where “they’re just beginning to start the fourth surge.” Look at what happened on April 3 in Michigan where there were a record number of 8,400 cases in one day. “That should have been a wakeup call to everyone.” It’s also the case, he pointed out, that there are more people between the ages of 30 and 50 who are being hospitalized and seen in ICUs
Other states with similar reports of increased cases include Ohio, Minnesota, Nebraska and Pennsylvania. Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff, head of Ohio’s Health Department, warned that “Ohio remains in a race against a virus that is now more contagious and right back on our heels.”
Apr. 4 (EIRNS)–It was a year ago April 21, when World Food Program Director David Beasley briefed the U.N. Security Council that widespread famines “of Biblical proportions” would take place, unless action was taken. This has come to pass. The 10 countries at the top of the list in Spring 2020, according to the April, 2020 “Global Report on Food Crises,” issued by the WFP were: Yemen, DRC, Afghanistan, Venezuela, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, Nigeria (Northern) and Haiti. Now today, these very same countries remain at the top of the list of 23 nations, listed in the March 23 “Hunger Hotspots” report released by the WFP and Food and Agriculture Organization, as an appeal for emergency action. Here are the particulars for these nations given under the heading, “Number of People in High Acute Food Insecurity in Hotspot Countries:” The number of people is given in millions for each nation: DRC (19.6,) Afghanistan (16.9,) Yemen (16.1,) Nigeria 13.0, in 15 states and the Federal capital,) Ethiopia (12.9,) Syria (12.4,) Venezuela (9.3,) South Sudan (7.2,) Sudan (7.1,) Haiti (4.4. The total number in these top 10 nations of those in acute food security is 118.9 million. The other 13 nations on the same list have a total of 27.8 million people in dire need, bringing the combined number to 147 million. The 13 nations are: Guatemala, Honduras, Mozambique, Burkina Faso, Somalia, Central African Republic, Niger, Sierra Leone, Madagascar, Mali, El Salvador, and Liberia.
Nigerian President: Lake Chad Water Transfer Is Imperative
April 4 (EIRNS) – Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari forcefully relaunched the Lake Chad Water Transfer Project, known as Transaqua, in a meeting with visiting Chad President Idris Deby on March 27.
Buhari reminded everyone that about 30 million people are adversely affected by a shrunken Lake Chad, which is now just about ten per cent of its original size, and “It is imperative that there be water transfer to the Lake Chad from the Congo Basin, so that the people can resume their normal lives.” This was reported in an official press release from the Presidency.
“He added that with inter-basin water transfer, farming, fishing, animal husbandry would resume, and curtail irregular migration of youths, who now brave the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea, to get into Europe, seeking greener pastures,.” says the statement by Buhari’s special media advisor Femi Adesina.
“I’ve been engaging with the relevant stakeholders in Africa and beyond, on why we need to recharge Lake Chad. Nigeria will benefit more, but it is also advantageous to everyone,’’ President Buhari added.
Chad President Idris Deby said that the recharge of Lake Chad is of importance not only for the whole of Africa but for the entire world. He counseled the Nigerian President to consider convening an international summit to move the idea forward.
At the end of February 2018, member states of the Lake Chad Basin Committee adopted Transaqua, the project drafted by a group of Italian engineers led by Dr. Marcello Vichi over 40 years ago, as the only feasible solution to the Lake Chad crisis. Eventually, the Italian Environment Ministry and the Lake Chad Basin Commission signed an MoU for a 1.5 million Euro grant to finance a feasibility study for the project. At the end of 2019, Italian senator Tony Iwoby provided for doubling that fund with an entitlement in the 2021 national budget. However, the study has never taken off, allegedly because the African side did not take action, despite the Italian Ministry of Environment having given green light to the proposed Terms of Reference. It is not excluded that some LCBC member states underwent pressures from European neocolonial circles who have long undertaken a stealth opposition against Transaqua. Meanwhile, last November 2020, former EU Commission Chairman and former UN envoy for the Sahel Romano Prodi confirmed his full support for Transaqua and for a possible international coalition to build Transaqua, involving the UN, the EU, the OAU and China.
President Buhari’s new intervention is hopefully giving new impulse to the project
Big Farmer Protests in Paris — ‘France, Do You Still Want Your Farmers?’
Apr. 4 (EIRNS)–Paris (Nouvelle Solidarité) –”France, do you still want your farmers?” These were the words used to describe the protest organised on Friday in the Greater Paris region by the French agricultural union FNSEA. Over the last weeks, despite the COVID-19 lockdown and restrictions, thousands of farmers and French farm organizations pulled out their tractors, notably in Clermont Ferrand and Lyon, to protest EU policies that put them “in danger of disappearing.” In Germany also, farmers were in the streets in mid-March to protest their impossible conditions. At the center of the French protest are the latest EU outlines to reform the Common Agricultural Policies (CAP,) a regulated production mechanism established by De Gaulle in 1962 to boost production and food security, which has always been attacked by London, and has been gradually destroyed and diluted.
With the EU’s “Green New Deal”, the proposed reform of the CAP implies new legislation aimed at taxing the use of nitrogen fertilizer. The new Climate and Resilience Bill, which farmers describe as a “punitive and unfair” nitrogen fee, would “stigmatize” the use of chemical fertilizer without providing any alternatives, said the FNSEA, France’s largest farm union. The union says the new legislation ignored the changes already taking place in farmers’ practices and would reduce farm incomes without giving a “real response” to current climate issues.
The potential fertilizer fee coupled with the Egalim Law (requiring French producers to themselves collectively negotiate prices with large distributors), which has put agriculture output prices well below production costs, could be disastrous to farmers and their families. At the same time the CAP reform in its current form requires farmers to make vast efforts to initiate an agro-ecological transition that most of them consider unworkable, and farmers are venting their frustration. A Senate report published on March 17 noted the “immense distress” among French farmers, due in particular to the “low level of agricultural income and the feeling of denigration” of the profession by “constant agri-bashing.” For the farmers, the protest is also about sending a message “to our fellow citizens alerting them to the urgency of saving French agriculture” without which “our food autonomy and the preservation of our national quality production” cannot be guaranteed. The farmers called for a CAP “for farms, not firms,” that “has the ambition to have many farmers, in all territories and in all lines of production.”
On October 25, 1971, the People’s Republic of China was recognized by the UN General Assembly as “the only legitimate representative of China to the United Nations,” and the UN vote removed the representatives of Taiwan from the United Nations. In commemoration of the 50th anniversary of the PRC’s role at the UN, Xinhua conducted a video interview with Schiller Institute representative at the UN, Richard A. Black. He discusses the economic development policies of the Charter, and the power of China’s BRI both as a fulfillment of the UN Charter, and as a global driver for peace and stability. The 4-minute interview is out on Xinhua‘s Twitter feed and can be viewed here. The written article is availablehere.
Beethoven: Spark of Joy – Oratorio, Op. 85, Christ on the Mount of Olives
Beethoven’s little-known oratorio “Christ on the Mount of Olives, Op. 85”, is considered a failure by most critics and scholars today, and they insist that Beethoven also considered it so. Yet, despite its many detractors, it was a great success in its time, until it was banned in 1825; and even though it was composed in two weeks, with a weak libretto, Beethoven thought enough of it to revise parts that he thought needed it. Could it be that objections to the work are based more on its radically different treatment of the character of Jesus Christ than any musical deficiencies?
The Origins of the Work
Before Beethoven attempted string quartets, he wrote three string trios to sharpen his compositional skills to the level necessary. Similarly, the oratorio “Christ on the Mount of Olives“ was very likely Beethoven’s preparation for his first opera, Leonore, later known as “Fidelio”. Both works were commissioned by the same individual, Emmanuel Schikeneder, who is best known for having commissioned and written the libretto for Mozart’s opera “The Magic Flute”. The opera was commissioned shortly after the premiere of the oratorio, most probably on the basis of its success. Both premiered in Schikeneder’s theater—the Theater an dem Wien—Christ on the Mount of Olives in 1803, and Leonore/Fidelio in 1805.
Oratorio and opera both combine music and drama, but in . . . oratorio, there is no scenery, the characters are not in costume, and they do not act. They stand and sing, letting the music tell the story. The chorus plays a much greater role than in opera. In “Christ on the Mount of Olives”, there are no acts, but six numbered sections featuring three soloists—Jesus, the Seraph, and Peter, as well as the chorus (playing different roles) and an orchestra.
What unifies these two works is the conception Beethoven shares with the great poet and playwright Friedrich Schiller—the Promethean idea of humanity—the idea that an individual person can intervene into history to change its course.
In the classical Greek play “Prometheus Bound” by Aeschylus, Prometheus, himself an immortal god, has stolen fire from the tyrannical chief God Zeus; and given it and other gifts of knowledge to the “creatures of a day”- mankind, whom Zeus wishes to destroy. Armed with knowledge, and a vision of the future (Prometheus’ very name means “forethought”), mankind is lifted above its bestial condition, and progresses. Zeus, in anger, imposes hideous punishment on Prometheus-to be chained to a rock, where an eagle returns every day to eat his liver. All of Prometheus’ friends, who live for the moment, urge him to compromise with Zeus, in order to ensure his immediate survival. Prometheus refuses to compromise. He operates on a higher level. Despite great suffering, he orders his life in the present, in order to bring about a future he knows has to be.
In his “Letters on the Aesthetical Education of Mankind”, Schiller also called upon the artistic community to give human beings a gift—of a more powerful, true, and beautiful notion of their own human nature. More than any other composer, Beethoven responded to Schiller’s call. Beethoven and Schiller shared something with Prometheus; they would not compromise an inch on matters of moral importance for humanity. Both introduced the bold idea of a woman as a Promethean leader; Schiller in his “Maid of Orleans” (the story of Joan of Arc), and Beethoven in his Lenore, the hero of his opera “Fidelio”.
Jesus as Promethean Hero
Part of the controversy over “Christ on the Mount of Olives” was the way Beethoven portrayed Jesus. For Christians, he is both the “Son of God” and the “Son of Man.” Some felt that portraying the human side of Him undermined his identity as “the Son of God.” There were plenty of gnostics trying to claim that he was the greatest of men, but still only a man. So, there was a reluctance to have either an actor or singer play Him directly. (Ft1) J.S. Bach did so, but as a bass, and like the evangelist, singing for the most part recitative, as a kind of narrative, rather than playing a direct dramatic role. For Beethoven, Jesus was also the “Son of Man’ as he called himself, and the human side of Him was often missed. In emphasizing Jesus’ identity as a human being though, Beethoven is not in any way seeking to undermine His divinity.
Unlike the “Passion” settings of the story, Beethoven’s oratorio does not deal with the trial and crucifixion of Jesus, but just the scene in the Garden of Gethsemane. It also differs in that Jesus is the main dramatic character, and his part is sung by a Heldentenor (heroic tenor.)
It is in the Garden of Gethsemane that Jesus accepted His hard fate: the inevitability of His own death, in order to fulfill His mission on earth. It was presented to Him in the form of a cup, from which He must drink. If He were only a God, there would have been no need to fear, but as a Man, it was terrifying.
He did not want to die, and prayed three times: “O my Father, if it be possible, let this cup pass from me.”
He looks around at his Apostles, and they have all fallen asleep. He realizes that no-one else is going to do it, and says to God the Father: “nevertheless not as I will, but as thou wilt.” (Matthew 26:39).
But, in order for us to love the sublime heroism of Jesus, his suffering must be real. The Biblical account of Christ’s suffering is powerful, but short:
“And his sweat were as it were great drops of blood falling down to the ground.” (Luke 22:44)
“My soul is exceeding sorrowful, even unto death.” (Mark 14:34, Matthew 26:38)
The shortness of that Biblical passage can allow readers to skip over it, without really taking it into their hearts. In his essay, “On the Pathetic” (discussed in the posting of April 7th), Schiller says that “the artist portrays suffering not for its own sake, but for the heroic quality of overcoming that suffering in order to act”. It is not art to become master of feelings, which only lightly and fleetingly sweep the surface of the soul; but to retain one’s mental freedom in a storm, which arouses all of sensuous nature, thereto belongs a capacity of resisting that is, above all natural power, infinitely sublime. Therefore, one attains to moral freedom only through the most lively representation of suffering nature, and the tragic hero must have first legitimized himself to us as a feeling being, before we pay homage to him as a being of reason, and believe in the strength of his soul.
Beethoven commissioned a libretto that would develop and dramatize the short passage: “O my Father, if it be possible, let this cup pass from me.” > > > [Excerpts from Fred Haight’s Daily Dose of Beethoven; the whole part 1 can be found at this link.
Here a sublime performance of Christ on the Mount of Olives, Op. 85, performed by the Vienna State Opera Orchestra, Vienna Academy Chorus, Hermann Scherchen, Jan Peerce, Maria Stander, Otto Wiener ℗ 2013 Past Classics.
Epidemiologists’ `Math’ Says Vaccinate More Before Any Boosters–
Aug. 22 (EIRNS) — A low-key op-ed by two epidemiologists, “Boosters won’t stop the Delta variant: Here’s the math”, was published back on Aug. 15 in the Washington Post. While focused on the United States, if applied to the entire world’s population it appears to provide substantiation for focusing all available and contracted vaccine supplies on the basic vaccination of citizens before giving any booster shots. The premise of their analysis: “Many vaccinated people are asking whether it’s time to get a booster dose. But the math behind the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19 can help us see that it’s not.”
The argument: The basic reproductive number R0 or the original virus in this pandemic — the number of people likely to be infected by each infectious person if there is no immunity in the population — was 3; of the Delta variant, it is estimated at 6-9. Re is the effective reproductive number, which is R0 multiplied by the share of the population which is susceptible to the disease, and which must be kept at 1 or lower to keep the epidemic from spreading. The susceptible portion of the population can be expressed by [1-xv], where 1 is the whole population (or adult population), x is the percentage of people fully vaccinated and v is the vaccines’ effectiveness. Then the effective reproductive number of the virus, Re, is R0 times [1-xv]. This Re is a direct measure of how fast and how far the Delta variant infections, hospitalizations and deaths spread.
Taking the Delta variant’s R0 as 8 and the vaccine effectiveness as 85%, Re would be just 1.2 if the entire target population were fully vaccinated. At 52% fully vaccinated (where the United States is now), Re for Delta is about 4, worse than the original virus variant when no one at all was immune. If a booster shot is assumed to raise vaccine effectiveness to 95%, then Re with the currently vaccinated population, if they were all to be boosted, is still about 4.
But if 75% of the target population were to become fully vaccinated, the Re number drops below 3. If 85% were vaccinated, with no boosters, Re would be about 2.4, even having assumed an R0 value which is near the top of the range for the Delta variant.
In other words, there is a huge field for increasing x, the proportion of people vaccinated; relative to the small range for increasing v, the vaccines’ effectiveness, by booster shots; and this determines how the spread of the Delta variant of COVID can be arrested. It would seem to apply to the population of all the world’s nations, as well as to that of Americans.
The authors are Prof. Eleanor Murray, Boston Univ. School of Public Health; and her doctoral student Ruby Barnard-Mayers.
