NASA’s Goddard Institute Pours Cold Water on Climate Change Sales Pitch—
Aug. 1 (EIRNS)–Under the headline “U.N. climate panel confronts implausibly hot forecasts of future warming,” a July 27 article in Science magazine covers the bombshell that has just hit the IPCC’s climate modelers: “Many of the world’s leading models are now projecting warming rates that most scientists, including the model makers themselves, believe are implausibly fast.”
Now, the article says, “scientists have scrambled to understand what went wrong.” Some of them are wondering how they can “turn their models into useful guidance for policy makers” – which was their supposed raison d’être in the first place! Worst of all for them, their feet are being held to the fire by Gavin Schmidt, Director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who said: “It’s become clear over the last year or so that we can’t avoid this [fixing the models].”
The IPCC is in trouble, because by the time the modelers’ bias was exposed, the supercomputing runs were already done and the IPCC report, based on these implausible fast warming rates, was nearing completion. The IPCC is now perilously close to being totally discredited, even by its own disciples. Meanwhile, other scientists, who actually measure phenomena rather than fiddle with models, are using recent observational data [gasp] “to rein them in.”
Here is a warning by one of the IPCC’s own climate projection leaders, Claudia Tebaldi, a climate scientist at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory: “For now, policy makers and other researchers need to avoid putting too much stock in the unconstrained extreme warming the latest models predict.”
Already climate papers are appearing using CMIP’s [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project] unconstrained worst-case scenarios for 2100. “But,” says the Director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, “that practice needs to change. You end up with numbers for even the near-term, that are insanely scary—and wrong.”
Aug. 1 (EIRNS)–The UN warned on Saturday of “catastrophic” food shortages set to sweep world’s hunger hotspots over the next three months. Among the 23 hotspots are Ethiopia’s embattled Tigray region, southern Madagascar, Yemen, South Sudan and northern Nigeria. These worst-case locations have now progressed to starvation and death situations. “Hunger Hotspots,” issued jointly by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization and their World Food Programme identified that in the August-November period “acute food insecurity is likely to further deteriorate.” Ethiopia is facing 401,000 people dying of starvation without an immediate intervention of humanitarian aid.
Schiller Institute International Conference – July 31, 2021
Afghanistan: A Turning Point in History After the Failed Regime-Change Era
Moderator: Dennis Speed (U.S.), The Schiller Institute
Helga Zepp-LaRouche (Germany), Founder and President of The Schiller Institute Keynote Address: “Afghanistan: The Bright Future for the Coming Cooperation of the Great Powers”
Pino Arlacchi (Italy), Sociology Professor at the Sassari University, Former Executive Director of the UN Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention, and former European Parliament Rapporteur on Afghanistan “Eradicate Opium in Afghanistan, Develop Modern Agriculture, Build the Nation, Now”
H.E. Ambassador Hassan Shoroosh (Afghanistan), Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan to Canada “The Way Forward for Afghanistan”
H.E. Ambassador Anna Evstigneeva (Russian Federation), Deputy Permanent Representative at the Mission of The Russian Federation to the UN “Russia’s Outlook for Afghanistan and Eurasia”
Dr. Wang Jin (China), Fellow with The Charhar Institute “Afghanistan and the Belt and Road Initiative”
Question and Answer Session
Ray McGovern (U.S.), Analyst, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA-ret.), Co-Founder, Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) “The Real Interest of the United States in Asia”
Hassan Daud (Pakistan), CEO, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province Board of Investment
“The Perspective from Pakistan: The Role of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for Afghanistan Reconstruction.”
Hussein Askary (Sweden/Iraq), Southwest Asia Coordinator for the Schiller Institute “Put Afghanistan on the Belt and Road to Peace!”
“After the hasty withdrawal of U.S. and NATO troops from Afghanistan—U.S. troops, except for a few security forces, were flown out in the dark of night without informing Afghan allies—this country has become, for the moment but likely not for long, the theater of world history.” —Helga Zepp-LaRouche, July 10, 2021
We face an extraordinary moment, of further descent into chaos, or the beautiful potential of Afghanistan becoming the seed-crystal of a new era of international cooperation so desperately needed in the wake of growing disease and famine worldwide.
Afghanistan was once a hub for the ancient Silk Road, the connection between the great cultures of Asia and those of the European side of the Eurasian continent. The entire Central Asian region was once known as “a land of 1,000 cities”, showcasing advanced technologies in oasis cities, including Merv, Balkh, Kabul, and Kandahar, with large-scale underground irrigation systems. Water development will once again be crucial, and the agricultural potential is great. In the past weeks, most of Afghanistan’s neighbors have come together, in an attempt to forge a commitment to end the nightmare suffered by the people of Afghanistan, a nightmare also suffered by the military forces of many nations drawn into needless combat in the service of a British-centered oligarchy fostering the growth of drug trafficking and terrorism in the entire region.
Just as the collapse of the Soviet Union marked the end of an era—the division of the world into nuclear armed blocs hostile to one another—so also the utter failure of the 20-year misadventure of the United States and NATO in Afghanistan, and in the other failed colonial wars in Southwest Asia, poses the question: Can the great nations of the world cooperate in the transformation of Afghanistan, and the other war-torn nations, into modern economies, participating in co-operative development through the New Silk Road process, exemplified by China’s Belt and Road Initiative?
Leading voices, from veterans’ groups and whistleblowers, to experts on the danger of global narcotics plague and on international political relations, will join Helga Zepp-LaRouche in dialogue, to impel the United States and Europe to join the growing international cooperation that is coming together. We can use this opportunity to make the turn from 50 years of failed policies, and instead to embark on the path required to achieve a new paradigm for mankind.
July 31 (EIRNS)–Today the Schiller Institute brought together in a five-hour intense discussion at an international virtual conference, diplomats and experts from many nations, including Afghanistan, Russia, China, Pakistan, the United States, Italy and others, on the theme: “Afghanistan: A Turning Point in History After the Failed Regime-Change Era.”
Helga Zepp-LaRouche (Germany,) Chairwoman and founder of the Schiller Institute, who has been leading a process of institutional and informal dialogue for the past 18 months, said at the conclusion of today’s event, that we now “have a perspective of where to go.” The priority is “to put development on the table, which will be difficult to refuse” by anyone, and to give all the support possible to make it happen. The last speaker of the day, Hussein Askary (Sweden/Iraq,) Southwest Asia Coordinator for the Schiller Institute, put it forcefully, that we must “make development the first item” in any talks, not the last. He warned, “Keep the warlords and the British out!” Askary’s presentation, which covered concrete aspects of development, was titled, “Put Afghanistan on the Belt and Road to Peace.”
The event was opened by Moderator Dennis Speed (U.S.A.), who said that the deliberations would change the usual conception of war or peace, to partake of the diplomacy of formulating policies for mutual understanding and development. He introduced a short 1985 video by statesman-economist Lyndon LaRouche making the point, with reference to President Abraham Lincoln’s record, that the power of infrastructure transforms an economy. Zepp-LaRouche’s opening remarks stressed that we are at a special moment in history, where geopolitical confrontation must be ended, and a new paradigm begun—not only for Eurasian integration and prosperity, but for universal history. She showed the beautiful “Golden Mask” artifact, to make the point of the 5,000-year history of the Central Asian region.
Playing a lead role in the discussion from beginning to end was Professor Pino Arlacchi (Italy), who participated from Italy. Currently Sociology Professor at the Sassari University, he was Executive Director of the UN Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention (1997-2002,) and former European Parliament Rapporteur on Afghanistan. He spoke on, “Eradicate Opium in Afghanistan, Develop Modern Agriculture, Build the Nation, Now.” He described his original plan which by 2001 had nearly eliminated opium poppy growing in Afghanistan, which then was reversed under the ensuing years from 2001 of U.S. and NATO military operations. Arlacchi again proposed a plan in 2010, which was thwarted by the EU, Britain and the U.S. Today, Afghanistan is the source of over 80% of the world’s opium drugs. Arlacchi laid out what can and must be done today. The needed approach uses alternative agriculture—supporting farmers to switch to other crops, and similar realistic methods. Arlacchi stressed how relatively inexpensive this is, given the huge leverage by the drug cartels. Farmers in Afghanistan might get $300 to 350 million for their opium crop, which then is worth $20 billion to organized crime in Europe. There are many alternative crops of great use and value, for example saffron.
The diplomats presented a sweeping picture of the present situation. Ambassador Hassan Shoroosh (Afghanistan), the Afghanistan ambassador to Canada, spoke from Ottawa, saying that there is a “new chapter of partnership” ahead, which must be worked out. His talk was, “The Way Forward for Afghanistan.” He said that his country is “positioned to serve as a land-bridge” in Eurasia, and reviewed in detail various transportation corridors, from the Lapis Lazuli Corridor, to the Five Nations Railway route.
Ambassador Anna Evstigneeva (Russia,) from the New York City, where she is Deputy Permanent Representative at the Mission of the Russian Federation to the UN. Her presentation was titled, “Russia’s Outlook for Afghanistan and Eurasia.” She stressed that the goal is stability, and there is no military solution. There are important frameworks among the neighbors in the region, including the CSTO and SCO and bilateral relations. There is a special role for the “extended troika,” which has been in place for many years. There are meetings coming up in the near future. She noted that transport and infrastructure are of great significance.
Dr. Wang Jin (China,) Fellow at The Charhar Institute, spoke on the topic, “Afghanistan and the Belt and Road Initiative.” He presented four key aspects of China’s concerns: 1) that there are no “spillover” impacts of instability; 2) that there is a future of advancement for Afghanistan; 3) that extremism and terrorism do not gain ground; and 4) that China and Afghanistan have positive ties.
From Pakistan, Mr. Hassan Daud spoke. He is the CEO of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province Board of Investment. He pointed out that Afghanistan is one of “the least integrated” economically in the Central and South Asian region, after these decades of strife. He spoke of the great “economic spillover” that will ensure, with Pakistan leveraging its position and resources to become a logistical hub, and extending benefits to Afghanistan through CPEC and the BRI. We must have “the spirit of the ancient Silk Road” again. He called for more seminars on this, involving scholars, chambers of commerce and others.
From the United States, Ray McGovern spoke. He is a former analyst at the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, co-founder of the Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity. Addressing the topic, “The Real Interest of the United States in Asia,” he made many strong points, including that there must be “accountability” for the string of commanders who lied about what the U.S. was doing in Afghanistan, also in Iraq and elsewhere. He dramatically pointed out, that there weren’t even competent “situation estimates” that should have been done, about terrain, weather, LOC—lines of communication, and other standard assessments of what the U.S. is doing in places. In 2010, the U.S. Navy logistics was paying $400 a gallon to put gas in the tanks of military vehicles in Afghanistan! He hit hard at the racism involved in presuming you can do anything, anywhere; he quoted Kipling.
Many others were involved in the two question and answer periods, with important exchanges over key topics. For example, Earl Rasmussen, Vice President of the Eurasian Society, raised the point of the necessity to build trust. Dr. Stephen Fischer, an American physician, reported on a year he spent in public health in Afghanistan, working with a provincial reconstruction team. Zepp-LaRouche stressed many times, that in the context of the prolonged pandemic, it is imperative that we move in Afghanistan, and everywhere, for public health and modern medical care infrastructure.
Ambassador Anna Evstigneeva made a concluding point, that it is “important to rise above geopolitics.” She said that in Russia, “at all levels, including President Putin,” we are ready for cooperation.” Helga Zepp-LaRouche called on the panelists, and anyone in the viewing audience, to contribute to the development program perspective under discussion, and mobilize. Prof. Arlacchi, who has a new book out, Against Fear (in Italian,) gave parting words that, “peace is stronger than war. Let’s be more courageous. Not a victim of huge deceptions.” The full conference is archived for viewing. Now is the time to join the Schiller Institute.
July 31 (EIRNS)–World Food Program Executive Director David Beasley made a strong intervention this past week in the July 26-28 Rome World Food Systems Pre-summit, by focusing on ending hunger, instead of greening food production, and serving “nature” apart from human beings. The UN WFP July 26 press release reported:
“Speaking at the opening of the UN Food Systems Pre-Summit in Rome on 26 July, the World Food Programme (WFP)’s Executive Director, David Beasley, called for action to reach zero hunger.
“While the world has the expertise and the resources to end hunger, efforts and attention are being directed somewhere else. ‘While we are rushing to space, 41 million people are knocking on famine’s door,’ he said.
“Calling out billionaires, Beasley said that ending hunger by 2030 would cost US$40 billion per year. ‘That seems like a lot of money. But in the United States alone, in the last one year, the U.S. billionaires’ net worth increase was over 1 trillion,’ he added.
“’There’s over U.S.$400 trillion on planet earth today. It is a shame that we have one single child going to bed hungry – let alone dying of hunger at a rate of one every five, six seconds.’”
Kurchatov Institute To Create a Joint Russia-Belarus Scientific Research Center–
July 28 (EIRNS)—The president of the Kurchatov Institute Scientific Research Center Mikhail Kovalchuk announced yesterday that his Institute and Belarus’s National Academy of Sciences had signed a roadmap to jointly establish “powerful projects related to new research infrastructure based on powerful installations—mega-sciences—[that] are now unfolding in front of us.”
Kovalchuk stated: “The program has also been launched in Russia and it is expected to become the world’s most accomplished research infrastructure in 5-7 years…. Importantly, both Belarus and Russia have the required tools. If we create this single infrastructural research space, we will become leaders in drawing other [Commonwealth of Independent States] CIS partners into this effort.”
He further said that “We have also proposed that a branch of the Kurchatov Institute be set up on the premises of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus to strengthen integration and cooperation. Also, we proposed that a branch of the Moscow Engineering and Physics Institute be opened in Belarus in the field of new education.”
The TASS wire reporting on this announcement characterized the Kurchatov Institute National Research Center as “one of the leading research facilities in Russia and in the world. With its creation, Russia has set up a unique inter-disciplinary scientific and technical compound that comprises the Kurchatov specialized synchrotron radiation source (KISI-Kurchatov), the U-70 accelerator, the IR-8 and VVR-M neutron research reactors, the PIK high-flux research reactor, the T-10 and T-15 tokamak thermonuclear installations, plasma and other units.”
South Korea Plans for Producing Up to 1 Billion Vaccines in 2022—
July 28 (EIRNS)—While it remains to be seen how the U.S. will follow through on their commitment to assist India in ramping up COVID-19 vaccine production, the U.S.-Korea plans are moving forward. In India’s case, the U.S. has a bumpy history of blocking critical raw materials for India’s world-leading vaccine production operations, and then turning down repeated requests for vaccines when India was in the greatest need. And today, Antony Blinken offered a paltry, even insulting, $25 million for India’s vaccination program. No vaccines included.
On May 23, when South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in came to the White House, agreement was made on a Global Vaccine Partnership (GVP), first with a “KORUS GVP Experts Group” of scientists, public officials and various experts. Seoul had actually wanted immediate vaccines from the U.S. in exchange for future vaccines to be provided from Seoul to the U.S.—but that was refused. Instead, four deals were initiated, beginning with Samsung Biologics arrangement to produce “hundreds of millions” of Moderna vaccines, as soon as technology transfer and trial production were completed. South Korea would be putting up the money for purchasing the vaccines produced. Moderna also signed an MOU with the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, and also the Ministry of Health and Welfare, for Moderna to invest in production facilities in Korea using a Korean workforce, with Korean government support for Moderna. Another MOU was signed by both the Health Ministry and SK Bioscience with the U.S.’s Novavax for vaccine development and production.
The update this month, from “a senior South Korean government official” is that Seoul is in talks with Pfizer and Moderna on expanding production up to 1 billion doses in 2022. (This is on top of deals with AstraZeneca and Novavax.) Health Ministry official Lee Kang-ho commented: “We have had frequent discussions with large pharmaceutical companies to produce mRNA vaccines. South Korea is keen to help by offering its facilities and skilled human resources.” The speculation is that Hanmi Pharmaceuticals and Quratis might be ready to start up production immediately. Hanmi said it has a large capacity reserved to produce Sanofi’s diabetes drug, but that is at a temporary standstill, and the capacity can meanwhile be used to produce COVID vaccines. And Quratis has a one-year-old factory which makes a tuberculosis vaccine, and they say they have capacity for mRNA vaccines. It appears that the technology, workforce and capital is all present, waiting to move forward.
Uzbek President Evokes Central and South Asia’s Historic Contributions to Humanity to Spur Its Development Today –
July 27, 2021 (EIRNS)—Addressing the July 15th-16th Central and South Asia Regional Connectivity conference in Tashkent, which his government organized, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev proposed that this region of almost two billion people conceive of its development today as a return to its role as a historic center of “active dialogue between peoples and civilizations … the crossroads of the Great Silk Road, Central and South Asia.”
No official translation of the speech into English is available yet, but the machine-translation of it quoted here, while not precise, captures the spirit of his call. He invoked names that every schoolchild on the globe should be familiar with some day.
Miziyoyev spoke of the great civilizations which arose in this region, going back as early as the third and second millennia BC, which “have left a deep mark on human history.” He reminded his audience, that “thanks to the spread of Islam, Buddhism, Hinduism and the unique traditions of different peoples in Central and South Asia, a great ethnocultural commonality has been established, and a rich and colorful culture of the East has been formed.”
The resulting strong ties between our peoples “ensured rapid intellectual and enlightenment growth… which brought to the world many more mature scholars and thinkers, such as Charaka and Sushruta, Brahmagupta and Al-Khwarizmi, Al-Farghani and Al-Farabi, Al-Beruni, Ibn Sina. They marked the development of human science and philosophical thought centuries ago,” he said. He then named some of the region’s outstanding representatives of literature who “with their immortal works … have made a great contribution to the development of the principles of peace, freedom and humanity, the ideas of friendship and mutual trust among the peoples of the world.”
“Unfortunately,” he added, “due to the historical situation, in the nineteenth century, the relations between the two neighboring regions were severed,” creating barriers between Central and South Asia. The end of that era of cooperation and mutual understanding is responsible for “the current lack of effective cross-border routes, poor development of trade and economic relations, as well as the underutilization of cultural and humanitarian relations.”
“It is time to harmonize the existing intellectual potential and our joint efforts, given the great historical, scientific, cultural and educational heritage of our peoples and the ability of our economies to complement each other,” he urged. “We are convinced that interdependence, cooperation, dialogue and, most importantly, the consistent and sustainable development of trust, will become a driving force for increasing the living standards and prosperity of the people of our regions.”
It was within that context, then, that he proposed specific ideas for regional cooperation, centered on logistics infrastructure and rail lines, and within that, aiding Afghanistan to find peace at this “important turning point in its recent history.”
July 27, 2021 (EIRNS)—On July 9 the Africa Center for Strategic Studies warned, “The surge of the Delta coronavirus variant in Africa is set to cause hundreds of thousands of deaths in the coming months, absent a dramatic scaling up of prevention measures and COVID vaccine access.” Now just 18 days later, the North, South, and East of Africa have exploded with new COVID cases. The latest infographic from the Africa Center dated July 12, shows total known confirmed cases of COVID in Africa at 5,984,845 since the beginning of the pandemic. View the time-lapsed map here.
At the time of the July 9 Africa Center report “26 African countries [had] seen their confirmed COVID-19 case[s] jump by approximately 50%” in June compared to May. Then, in the first week of July, 5,600 people across Africa died from COVID, a 43% increase from the week before. Overall, the Center noted, “There has been a near tripling in the number of COVID cases and 30,000 fatalities on the continent since the end of April when the Delta variant emerged in Uganda.” By mid-July the Delta variant was found in 22 of 54 African countries, countries with inadequate healthcare platforms and access to vaccines—criminally, a mere one percent of Africans have been vaccinated.
A change-in-fatalities table, by the Africa CDC, compared death-rate increases May 8-June 7 to June 7-July 7, showing that 16 African countries had a 450% to 4,303% rise in COVID deaths, while six African countries had a 100% to 397% rise in COVID deaths. The table is here.
Now, July 27, an International Rescue Committee press release reads, “From Asia to Africa to Latin America, countries are suffering from record COVID-19 caseloads and deaths, … The Delta variant is leading to a spike in cases in crisis-affected countries. In the month to July 25th, there has been a significant increase in cases in Zimbabwe (116%), Thailand (110%), Myanmar (78%), Liberia (60%), Bangladesh (33%) and Afghanistan (29%), and concerning test positivity rates in Mexico (37%), Iraq (22%), Colombia (22%), Zimbabwe (20%) and Democratic Republic of Congo (17%).”
Echoing Helga Zepp-LaRouche’s call for new healthcare platforms in every country, and Dr. Joycelyn Elders’ insistence that public health measures are urgently needed, the Africa CDC July 9 report concluded that need is clear to “ramp up vaccine access to avert a humanitarian calamity” and, since “Africa does not have the hospital infrastructure to rely on …. Prevention, relying on public health principles, remains the indispensable priority.”
July 27, 2021 (EIRNS)—During the July 24 summit of foreign ministers of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac), held in Mexico City, five nations joined with Mexico to officially establish the Latin American and Caribbean Space Agency (AECL). Mexico, Argentina, Ecuador, Bolivia, Paraguay, and Costa Rica are the current signatories, but when Celac heads of state meet in September, it is expected that several more governments will sign on. When a preliminary agreement on AECL’s founding was reached last October, participants expressed great optimism that space exploration and related technological and scientific developments and spin offs would be the best way to address the poverty and underdevelopment affecting all their nations.
The same sentiment was expressed by the foreign ministers who signed on July 24, according to Forbes Mexico the same day. The agency’s creation, said Ecuador’s foreign minister, Mauricio Montalvo, is the result of the “coordinated and harmonious work” within Celac which will “certainly be of benefit to all of our societies.” Costa Rican foreign minister Rodolfo Solano added that “in the case of Costa Rica, together with nations like Mexico, I find no more responsible way to celebrate 200 years of independent life than to think of the next 200 years, and see space as the frontier to be conquered.” And addressing the skeptics, or those who ask why poor nations think space exploration is an option, Paraguay’s foreign minister, Euclides Acevedo, put it this way: “We may not yet have satellites to place in orbit, but we are beginning to place in orbit those enemies of success, those apostles of failure, the mediocre and the resentful.”