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How the Earth’s Climate Is Changing and Why

Prof. Carl-Otto Weiss — Prof. Weiss is Advisor to the European Climate and Energy Institute (EIKE); Professor and Director, German Federal Institute of Metrology, Germany. This is the prepared text as edited of his presentation.

In this contribution I show you the results of a cycle analysis of 2,000 years of global climate data, the result of which is that Earth’s climate is determined by three main cycles, and that CO2 plays only an insignificant role.

But first let me mention how I became interested in the question of Earth climate. My research subject was everything related to lasers. Physics of Lasers, technical and scientific applications, e.g., spectroscopy and atomic clocks based on one singe atom, etc., etc. Even in the 1990s, for persons with scientific education, the self-contradictions of the official climate propaganda were obvious. Thus, the official narrative could not be true. We joked about the primitivity of the propaganda.

I did not have time to look deeper. I had 40 scientific coworkers, 10 of whom, to feed them, I had to find about $1 million each year. So that did not give me much time. But at retirement I had time. First I looked into the official models, and it is quite obvious where the fudge factors in the calculations are. But, then, I am an experimental physicist, so I got together with Horst Luedecke to analyze climate measurements.

In particular we did what is called Fourier Analysis, which means looking for cycles in seemingly irregular measurements in time series. Since this is the most common type of analysis in any field of physics or technology, we were surprised not to find any such work in the half-million publications of the climate literature. But then we said, “OK, if nobody did that so far, well, we will do that.” We published our analysis, and the reviewers confirmed that our work and conclusions were correct.

We reconstructed the terrestrial temperature history of the last 2,000 years using published local temperature proxy data [4]. Figure 1 [next page] shows the locations of the measurements on the globe and the type of temperature proxy.

The data comprise several hundred thousand individual measurements. Thus, by averaging to yearly values, the noise in the data can be much reduced. The global temperature history reconstructed in this way (Figure 2, annual data in grey) exhibits all historically known temperature extremes, such as the Roman Optimum (~0 AD), the Medieval Optimum (~ 1000 AD), the Recent Optimum (~2000 AD) or the Little Ice Age (~ 1500 AD). Even details like the Deep Minimum of 1450, known from the biography of Louis XI, show up. As to be expected, the reconstruction yields also the 1870–2000 temperature rise, which is officially claimed as due to human CO2 emissions.

Figure 1. Location of Temperature Proxies. Green: tree rings; Blue: ice cores; Red: speleothems (stalagmites, etc.); Magenta: sediments; Black: other.

“Climate,” officially defined as the 30-year running average of temperature, is shown in Figure 2 (blue curve). The climate curve emphasizes the mentioned temperature features. The correct representation of the known historical temperature variations indicates that the reconstruction is realistic. We then Fourier-transformed annual temperatures (grey in Figure 2). The resulting spectrum Figure 3 shows three dominant cycles with periods of ~1,000, ~460, and ~190 years. These cycles were already known from local studies, (Eddy-, Babich-, De Vries cycles, respectively). This confirms once more that the reconstruction is realistic, and excludes [the possibility] that the dominant cycles could be mathematical artifacts.

Figure 2. Temperature history over the past 2,000 years (grey: annual values; blue: “climate”—30 year running average; red: sum of the three dominant cycles).

For those less familiar with the Fourier transform, we mention that periodic variations (cycles) show up in the spectrum as sharp peaks (such as the three main cycles of Figure 2). Non-periodic variations, e.g., monotonically rising or falling, show themselves in the spectrum as broad continua.

In Figure 3, broad continua are not visible. This suggests already that non-periodic variations in the temperature, such as warming due to human emissions, are absent. However, broad spectral continua may be masked by noise. To exclude such a possibility, we transformed back to the time domain.

Figure 3. Spectrum of the 2,000 years’ annual values, showing three dominant cycles with 1,000-, 460-, 190-year periods.

Figure 4 shows the three main cycles in the time domain (amplitudes normalized for clarity). The sum of the three dominant cycles (red curve, Figure 2) agrees with the climate (blue curve) remarkably well (correlation 0.85). The sum of the three cycles represents, notably, also the temperature rise for 1870–2000.

Figure 4. The three dominant cycles in time domain (amplitudes normalized for clarity).

I emphasize this result again: the warming from 1870–2000 is due to the three main natural climate cycles. And not due to CO2, as claimed in the official propaganda.

The difference between the reconstruction (grey or blue values, Figure 2) and the cycle sum (red in Figure 2) around 2000 AD would be compatible with the recent estimates of CO2 climate sensitivity of ~0.5° for CO2 doubling. (See, e.g., [5] and Figure 5), certainly unimportant for life on Earth. The three cycles with their amplitudes and phases, thus allow calculating the essential climate changes for the past and for the future.

Figure 5. Periodogram of 8,000 years of solar activity, showing three dominant cycles [6]. Note the correspondence of periods with the dominant climate cycles of Figure 2.

We can ask further about the origin of the three dominant climate cycles. I found [6] that these agree remarkably in periods with the three dominant cycles of solar activity (see Figure 4). The mechanism by which solar activity (i.e., “solar wind”) affects Earth’s climate, is well understood [9]. It follows that the cycles of solar activity determine the terrestrial climate.

Interestingly, Scafetta [6] shows that all principal solar activity cycles can be explained by the motion of the planets (particularly Jupiter and Saturn), and the planetary tide forces acting on the solar magnetic field generator (the mechanism by which the tide forces of planets influence the solar activity has recently been clarified [8]).

The main result of our analysis is that the global warming from 1870 to the present is natural and not man made, and that it originates from the three dominant cycles.

The continuation of the three dominant terrestrial cycles into the future indicates cooling until 2070 . The recent continuation of the rise of the climate curve (blue) as different from the cycle sum (red) may indicate the small contribution of CO2 of 0.5°C per doubling of the CO2 content of the atmosphere [5], which is certainly unimportant for life on earth

Summarizing, I mention that this analysis, along with many others, disproves all official propaganda claims of a dangerous warming due to CO2.

A first independent confirmation of our results, namely that the 1870–2000 temperature rise is natural, was given recently, using pattern recognition on temperature proxies [7].

Finally, just to give a taste of the surprisingly primitive propaganda lies, I mention only three of them. Fig. 7. {Slide 7. Three examples of totally wrong propaganda claims.}

References

1. See, e. g., https://www.tmgnow.com/repository/solar/lassen1.html

2. Steinhilber, F., Beer, J., Froehlich, C., Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 L19704

3. See, e.g., Wagner, G. et al. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28 (2001) 303-306

4. Luedecke, H.-J., Weiss, C. O., The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 11 (2017) 44-53

5. Microphysics of Atmospheric Phenomena B. M Smirnow, Springer Atmospheric Schiences ISBN 978-3-319-30813-5; DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-30813-5

6. Scafetta, N., Journ. Atm. and Solar-Terrestrial Phys. 80 (2012) 296-311

7. Abbot, J., Marohasy, J. GeoRes 14 (2017)36-46

8. F. Stefani, A. Giesecke, T. Weiter; Sol. Phys. (2019) 294: 60

9. H. Svensmark, M.B. Enghoff, N. Shaviv, J. Svensmark, NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, DOI

10. 1038/s41467-017-2


African Nations Plan To Develop Their Fossil Fuel Resources, Climate Change Be Damned

Aug. 6, 2022 (EIRNS)–The folks at London’s fanatically Malthusian the Guardian are besides themselves, having been leaked a document revealing that African nations are discussing going into next November’s COP27 UN climate summit with a common position asserting their right to develop their fossil fuel resources, in order to develop.

In an Aug. 1 “exclusive,” the Guardian reports that someone passed them a five-page “technical document” with an accompanying 25-page explanation revealing the plan, which was prepared by the African Union for a June 14-16 meeting of AU energy ministers. That document asserts that “in the short to medium term, fossil fuels, especially natural gas, will have to play a crucial role in expanding modern energy access in addition to accelerating the uptake of renewables.”

 The Guardian warned that if Africa dares to proceed on “new exploration for gas, and the exploitation of Africa’s vast reserves of oil,” the entire climate scheme might collapse.

 Africa must not advance past unreliable “sun and wind,” the head of the green “Power Shift Africa” thinktank, Mohamad Adow insists! Africa Coal Network coordinator Lorraine Chiponda denounced African leaders discussing such an idea as “reckless,” even as she admitted that 600 million people in Africa “live in energy poverty.” That is, they have no access to electricity.

 The British Royal Family is on the case. On July 6, a fellow at Chatham House/Royal Institute of International Relations issued a so-called “expert opinion,” warning that this year’s UN COP27 summit being hosted by Egypt, an African nation, is a problem. Egypt has not set any quantifiable emission reduction targets, has no economy-wide carbon reduction target, and never published a long-term strategy for decarbonization. It is also the second-largest producer of natural gas in Africa, and is becoming a fossil gas hub for the Eastern Mediterranean, it notes. Furthermore, Egypt has “voiced support for other African countries to extract and deploy fossil gas and oil resources, making it one of the protagonists of the ‘great fossil gas pushback’. These advocates defend the right of developing countries to deploy fossil gas as a ‘transition fuel’ and champion its necessity to solve energy poverty,” the author complained.

 With typical imperial arrogance, however, the author assures that Egypt will be “malleable,” if attention is paid to change its stance.


Chilean Farmers Toss Out Produce To Protest Miserable Profits, High Cost of Inputs

Aug. 1 (EIRNS)—Tomato farmers in the northern Chilean city of Arica protested the high price of fertilizer and other inputs by tossing their tomatoes all over Route 5 North highway on July 11, cutting off all transit on the road for several hours. Producers told ADN radio that between what they have to pay for inputs and the low price they receive from merchants, it’s impossible to earn a decent profit. So, they reasoned, they wouldn’t be losing much by tossing the tomatoes onto the highway and blocking traffic.

There is generalized discontent among Chilean farmers, as seen in testimony given by several producers who addressed the Senate Agriculture Commission on May 16 to document their situation. Drought is a huge problem for farmers, compounded by the high price of inputs, lack of fertilizer, etc. In many drought-stricken areas, producers are forced to fire their workers and stop exporting because production of quality produce is impossible.

One producer, who had farmed for 30 years, warned the Senators that Chilean agriculture is facing a crisis, and that the nation’s food security is in jeopardy. And, he said, the problem isn’t just national, but global. This is an emergency, he stressed.


Zepp-LaRouche on CGTN Radio: Immorality of Sanctions & Import of Russia-Ukraine Grain Deal

Found here is a segment of Helga Zepp-LaRouche’s interview with Ge Anna at CGTN World Today done July 25 in which Zepp-LaRouche insists on the immorality of sanctions for all countries. This segment was Tweeted out by Ms. Ge Anna which can be heard at the link.

In the longer interview with Ms. Ge Anna, Mrs. Zepp-LaRouche also takes up the multi-layered importance of the just concluded Russia-Ukraine grain deal which can be heard here in the second segment start minute 15:12″ to 26:58″ using the play button at the left.


R-CALF USA Sent Support to the Dutch Farmers Against Global, Green Cartels

July 23, 2022 (EIRNS)–R-CALF USA, the largest association of independent cattlemen in the United States, on July 21, issued a statement of support to farmers in The Netherlands, protesting against the impossible green government mandates, to cut nitrous emissions and run-off by 2023. Bill Bullard, R-CALF USA CEO, stated, “Dutch farmers are facing an immediate threat to their livelihoods, liberty and independence. America’s cattle farmers and ranchers are on the cusp of suffering the same fate, which is why R-CALF USA supports the Dutch farmer-protestors who are fighting on the front line.” He said that the Dutch government is disregarding “any concern for reductions in food production almost certain to occur under the mandate.”

R-CALF USA, based in Montana, stands for Ranchers-Cattlemen Action Legal Fund United Stockgrowers of America, and they have led the charge in recent years, fighting in the courts, Congress and public arena, against the Big Four cartel of meatpackers which dominates 85% of U.S. beef processing—Tysons, Cargill, JBS, and Marfrig.

R-CALF USA has also exposed how the “green” agenda is used as a cover for attacking cattlemen, and cutting the food supply, as in the case of the Global Roundtable for Sustainable Beef. R-CALF USA leader Tracy Hunt, a rancher and attorney in Wyoming, has exposed the GRSB as a front group for the likes of the World Wildlife Fund, cartels, and those who want depopulation.

Bullard denounced the Dutch government for trying “to whip many or all of its nation’s farmers into submission. We urge all Americans to join with us in admonishing the Dutch government’s action and to stand in support of Dutch farmers.”

Bullard has stressed the particular point that his rancher group has long opposed allowing beef imports into the U.S. from The Netherlands–a big beef-exporter–or other export source nations for the world meat cartels, but R-CALF USA supports the Dutch farmers. He said, “This isn’t about trade policy. The Netherlands is ground zero for a globalized effort to control the food supply and those who produce it.” 

Bullard issued a video statement on the Dutch farmers’ protest this last week, which is linked from his July 21 statement, which now is also circulating in German in Europe.


People First – Defend the Farmers Against Green Policies and Speculators!

July 11, 2022 (EIRNS)–Alf Schmidt, a sheep producer and farm leader from Thuringia, addressed the Bueso national convention on July 2 in Frankfurt with a hard hitting, extensive insight on the insanity and deliberate destructive agricultural policies, which are perpetrated in Germany by current “Green” leader Cem Özdemir, Federal Minister of Food and Agriculture, as well as by government leaders in The Netherlands and all over Europe. 

Schmidt started his remarks by asking “Why were there no greenies in East Germany [GDR]?” The answer? “Education was mandatory.”

His presentation title was “Özedemir’s Agricultural Policies – Food as a Weapon.”  With many examples and frightening anecdotes, he showed how agricultural production in Germany is being further and further destroyed and ultimately made completely impossible – by increasingly crazy legal requirements and regulations imposed in the name of animal, environmental and climate protection. 

The speech was a very shocking eye-opener for the audience, and made clear how urgent it is to create international alliances between farmers, entrepreneurs, and all other citizens, for the common good, before vital productive activity in all areas is completely ruined, and the basis for human existence has vanished.

Some examples: As a sheep farmer, Schmidt has recorded around €1.2 million in damage caused by the return of wolves. The demanded reduction in the use of fertilizers, would reduce the quality of the grain so much that it can be used only as fodder, but no longer as bread grain. Large areas of land would be taken away from agricultural production for insect protection and water protection. The stricter regulations for animal transport would be practically impossible to meet. 

In the end, agriculture in Germany would be shut down and Germany would become completely dependent on food imports from abroad. The independent farmers would be ruined, and the land would be bought up by large companies. He said that it was already becoming apparent that food production would decline drastically.

 Finally, he showed a video statement by Sieta van Keimpema, press officer of the Farmers Defense Force and chairwoman of the European Milk Board, who explained for a German audience the reason for the farmers’ protests in the Netherlands: the government had decided on drastic conditions aimed at forcing one third of all farmers to give up their farms.

Alf Schmidt spoke at the international Schiller Institute conference Nov. 14-15, 2021 in the panel on physical economy.


Farmers Stand Up Throughout Europe

Farmers Stand Up Throughout Europe

July 8, 2022 (EIRNS)—Many of them inspired by the Dutch insurgency, farmers in other European nations are standing up. The Italian Twitter site Radiogenova is covering Dutch, German, Polish, Italian and Spanish farmer actions. They covered Spanish protests July 1 and they covered Polish protests yesterday: “Polish farmers also rise up in Warsaw: ‘That’s enough! We won’t let ourselves be robbed!’ They accuse the political class of destabilizing production by raising interest rates, which does not stop inflation: ‘We workers cannot pay for the crisis created by the politicians!’”

Several independent regional farmers associations have started protest actions in Italy. On July 6, farmers in Calabria, supported by colleagues from Sardinia and Latium, staged a tractor demonstration in Lamezia Terme (Calabria), under the slogan “Stop the Speculators Who Bring Down Farmers.” A press release by the “Movimento Territorio e Agricoltura” (MTA) explains that the action is against “the politicians” who, “instead of listening to producers’ demands,” are protecting those who want to turn Italian agriculture “into a big trading platform in the hands of financial speculation.” Italian farmers cannot survive under the current production costs, especially gasoline, but also fertilizers, seeds, etc. The statement says the Lamezia Terme demonstration will be followed by similar ones throughout Italy.

On its Facebook page, the MTA blasts established trade unions as well and looks at the mobilization of Dutch farmers. They posted several videos and comments such as “This is a revolution!”


Poland Urges Citizens to Gather Firewood, Due To Coal Shortage

June 8 (EIRNS) – If it weren’t so tragic, this would sound like a bad Polish joke: After banning all imports of Russian coal, Poland is now suffering such a severe energy shortage combined with soaring prices, that the government has “authorized” citizens to forage for firewood in the forests.

RT reported: “It is always possible, with the consent of foresters, to collect branches for fuel,” Deputy Minister of Climate and Energy Edward Siarka was quoted by Next Gazeta as saying on Monday. However, desperate citizens will first have to be trained in such medieval technologies: “Those wishing to gather wood must first undergo training and obtain permission from the local forestry unit. The report went on to clarify that people can only take branches already lying on the ground, and cannot cut down trees.”


New UN Report Calls for Urgent Aid to 20 ‘Hunger Hotpots’

June 8, 2022 (EIRNS)–The UN report “Hunger Hotspots FAO-WFP Early Warnings on Acute Food Insecurity June to September 2022 Outlook” was issued June 6, sounding the alarm on the scale of the world hunger crisis today. The joint authors of this periodical report are the World Food Program and the Food and Agriculture Organization. Among the 20 nations listed as in need for “urgent aid,” the WFP press release on the report stated that “Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Sudan and Yemen remain at ‘highest alert’ as hotspots with catastrophic conditions, and Afghanistan and Somalia are new entries to this worrisome category since the last hotspots report in January 2022. These six countries all have parts of the population facing the IPC (5-point scale of severity of hunger–ed.) phase 5 `Catastrophe’… with up to 750,000 people facing starvation and death. 400,000 of these are in Ethiopia’s Tigray region….The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Haiti, the Sahel, the Sudan and Syria remain ‘of very high concern,’ with deteriorating critical conditions.”

The report gives country-specific information on the food requirements to save millions of lives.


‘Youth Development in an Uncertain World’: Interview with Helga Zepp-LaRouche

May 18 (EIRNS)–CGTN conducted an interview on May 17 with Helga Zepp-LaRouche on the centenary of the Communist Youth League. The video with a short description by He Yuhan is available here. {Here is the transcript:}

Q: What is the youth’s role in the Chinese dream of national rejuvenation?

HELGA ZEPP-LAROUCHE: Well, yes, I was for the first time in China in 1971, and this was in the middle of the Cultural Revolution. The situation was so different. People were poor, they were not happy, they lived in a tremendous tension all the time. But even then, people were telling me how much improved the situation was compared to before the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.

Now when I was there, it was just announced that Henry Kissinger had arrived. This was a big, big news, and as we now know, this led then to the historic visit of President Nixon one year later. The situation was, there was not much development. Thousands of bicycles for one car; people were still travelling over dirt roads. I went to Beijing; I saw the Summer Garden painted all in red color by the Revolutionary Guards. Because I saw China as it was then, and I was able to speak to a lot of people also in the countryside. Around Shanghai and Xintao, there were a lot of people who either spoke German or English. But since I had this experience, I think I can say with my own experience, I can testify to the enormous development China has made, which in one sense is unparalleled in the whole world. I think this is very important, because what counts for the identity of a person, especially also a young person, is not so much the condition as you have it at that moment, but it is the vector of development. If the vector of development is upward, then people become optimistic. I can say that also because I see certain parallels to the situation with the German economic miracle which was the reconstruction of Germany after the Second World War, which is why the generation which grew up then was and is still much more optimistic than many of the young people in Germany today.

But in China, because there was this extremely successful development, I have found that young people have been incredibly optimistic, and therefore, when I ask people, “What do you want to become?” They say, “I want to become an astronaut,” or “I want to go and help to build up Africa.” So, I think this is really a very good condition, and I think that therefore the young people in China have a very important historic mission.

I mean at that time, naturally China was very closed, and when I as a young journalist had the opportunity to make this visit, I was all enthusiastic, and I think that curiosity is something I would wish that every young person should have. Because if you want to explore the world when you are young, that’s really the best time to do it. I’m so grateful I did that, because it did shape the rest of my life in so many ways, because one of the experiences of this trip was also that I saw in other countries the under-development of Africa, of certain Asian countries. That motivated me greatly to do as much as I can to get to a new more just world economic order.

Q: What are the unique characteristics and attributes of China’s contemporary youth?

ZEPP-LAROUCHE: I think it’s the environment which is very favorable to the development of young people in China, because when the society gives you the idea that every newborn child is welcomed, and is welcomed because it has a unique creative potential which enriches the common good of society as a whole, this has a very important impact on the formation of the personality. I’m contrasting that, for example, with the Green ideology in Germany, which is not the same like being careful for the environment in China, but in Germany it’s a complete negative ideology. You have the idea that every child and every person is a burden on nature, and therefore, the fewer people there are, the better. There are even books in Germany which say it’s better for the environment not to have any children at all. Now that’s naturally leading to the end of society pretty quickly. But fortunately, in China it is not like that, and I have seen that both in 1971 when I visited, I went to a lot of these children’s palaces, which were devoted to the education of younger children. They were learning how to dance, ballet, sports, gardening, agriculture. I think that that idea, that the aim of education is excellence, I have seen on the many visits I have made to China ever since. I think the result is that China has become an enormously productive society, and I think that speaks for itself.


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